Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
AM Status Quo
AR Base Volumes Case, AR Downside Volumes Case, and Wall Street Consensus
(in millions, unless otherwise noted)
Commentary
AM is covered by 14 analysts as compared to 22 for AR and 11 for
AMGP
Median price target of $38.00 as of 8/30/2018
Average price target range of $35.00 $41.00 as of 8/30/2018
Distributable Cash Flow / LP Unit
$1.61
Wall Street Consensus
0
2017A
$2.19
$2.04
2018E
$2.722.65
$2.04
$2.40
2019E
$3:24
$3.02
Mgmt. Projections at AR Base Case
2020E
Source: Management Projections, Thomson One, FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
$3.75
$3.33
2021E
2019E-
2022E CAGR
I 16%
$4.29
16% I
|
$3.74 16%
2022E
EBITDA
$529
2017A
$0.47
ⒸMgmt. Projections at AR Downside Production Case
2017A
$730
$729
2018E
$714 $851
$1.72
$1.720
Distributions per Unit
$989
$1.71
2018E
$931 $1,105
2019E
$2.21
$2.20
$1,222
2019E
2020E
$1,174
$2.85
$2.15
$1,413
2020E
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
O
$1,229
$2.58
$2.82
$1,382 O
2021E
$3.42
$1,642
2021E
$1,409
8 $2.97
$1,564
2022E
$3.13
$4.10
$3.42
2019E-
2022E CAGR
1
$3.51
2022E
ENERGY INVESTMENT &
MERCHANT BANKING
I
1
18%
2019E-
2022E CAGR
1 23%
I 17%
TUDORPICKERING 80
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