jetBlue Mergers and Acquisitions Presentation Deck
Analysts see similar regulatory profile for both Frontier and
JetBlue transactions
"We believe the proposed transaction has merit and would pass
muster with regulators
We are of the view that JetBlue's proposed acquisition of Spirit would
not be blocked by regulators given the modest route overlap between
both airlines." —Deutsche Bank
"Their aggregate domestic and system seat share would put their FLL
hub on par with Alaska's Portland hub and Southwest's Nashville
operation. [...] If one were to analyze the 50 biggest US airports, the
largest airlines at 22 of them would have seat shares that exceed
JetBlue and Spirit's FLL operation. [...] Prior merger analyses
conducted by the DOJ view FLL and MIA as a single market. If one
were to adjust for precedent, then JetBlue-Spirit's combined domestic
and system seat shares for the FLL/MIA market would drop to 27.2%
and 24.6%, respectively." -Deutsche Bank
"Frontier has a checkered history with respect to network planning
(lacks staying power in its markets). JBLU combined with SAVE, in
contrast, offers greater network stability for growth and thus, would be
a more formidable competitor to the Big Four" -Seaport
jetBlue
"We see a path for either the JetBlue-Spirit or Frontier-Spirit
merger to be cleared. Most notably, we believe there is a
misconception on the level of overlap and see little variance in
competitive implications outside of Fort Lauderdale airport (FLL)...”
-Raymond James
"Review [of] the HHI impact at key airports under each merger [...] The
impacts are modest under both mergers with the exception of FLL and
SJU under the JetBlue-Spirit deal. However, when considering South
Florida as a whole, i.e., combining MIA and FLL, the impact is modest.
Moreover, JetBlue's resulting increased Florida exposure
(lowering reliance on the Northeast) could also reduce DOJ's
concern around American's undue influence with the NEA."
-Raymond James
Spirit has significantly overstated and misrepresented the relative regulatory risk of JetBlue's proposal
and ignores its own uphill regulatory battle
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