Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value A STABLE BUT FRAGILE START TO 2023 In H1 2023, the Nasdaq 100 had one of its best starts of the year ever, returning almost 40 percent. Around 90 percent of the gain was propelled by the large tech giants. This concentration of returns was underpinned by positive sentiment around these businesses' earnings prowess, "do more with less" messaging, and perhaps most importantly their showcasing of real-world applications of artificial intelligence. Beneath these mega caps, stock market performance was more mixed and less uniformly positive. This is reflected in our unlisted portfolio's peer universe, in which the weighted-average share price movement was up in low-single digit percentages during the quarter, compared to a 4 percent decline in the underlying valuations of our private businesses. We saw minor positive movements in our software peers and more muted developments elsewhere in our comparable universe. We exert some caution in reflecting H1 2023 public market multiple expansion in valuing our businesses considering the still prevailing market uncerta- inty and the continued increase in correlation between profitability and valuation multiples. As a consequence, the average premiums ascribed to our faster growing businesses has shrunk meaningfully during 2023 to date. In Q2, the weighted-average peer multiple remained unchanged compared to 3 percent multiple contraction in our unlisted portfolio. Key revisions of financial outlooks in this quarter pertain to Oda closing its operations in Germany and Finland, and of Village MD consolidating its footprint to accelerate profitability after the acquisition of Summit Health. Elsewhere in the private portfolio, expectations on growth rates and profitability remained largely unchanged on average. When factoring in changes in the private portfolio's composition in the quarter, the average expected growth rate of the portfolio remained unchanged in the quarter even with the downward adjustments of forecasts at Oda and VillageMD. The effect of liquidation preferences remains pronounced in our private portfolio but is causing less of a drag. In the quarter, the aggregate fair value impact amounted to SEK 2.8bn, down 150m in the quarter. This ag- gregate impact corresponds to 9 percent of the fair value of our unlisted portfolio, down from 10 percent in the previous quarter. More than 75 percent of this difference continue to relate to five specific investments representing SEK 4.3bn in value where our underlying valuation needs to KINNEVIK Interim Report Q2 2023 Portfolio Overview double on average before our investments will accrue an on-paper return. Developments in the currencies most important to our private invest- ments again provided tailwinds to our fair values in the quarter. Both the Euro and the US dollar appreciated by more than 4 percent. In aggregate, currencies had a positive SEK 1.3bn impact on our fair values in the quarter. Transaction intensity was lower in Q2, and centered around Spring Health, TravelPerk, and Mathem. Tallying all funding rounds and transac- tions completed during the first half of 2023, these have been completed at headline valuations exceeding each of their preceding quarter's un- derlying valuation by 7 percent on average (21 percent when excluding the Kinnevik-led investments in Spring Health). In relation to current carrying values, the H1 2023 transaction valuations are 4 percent lower than our underlying Q2 2023 valuations (8 percent higher excluding Spring Health). These data points are indications of our mark-to-market approach to fair value assessments. They also demonstrate that our carrying values reflect underlying changes in valuations that for many venture and growth businesses are yet to be manifested in transactions and financing rounds in the current market environment. Effect of Liquidation Preferences Q2 2022-Q2 2023, SEKbn and % of Unlisted Fair Value 8% 2.3 Q2'22 9% Sustainability 2.7 Q3'22 Total Effect 11% 3.2 Q4'22 10% 2.9 Q1'23 % of Fair Value 9% 2.8 Q2'23 Financial Statements Development of Key Currencies Against the SEK, Q/Q and LTM +4.2% +4.6% +7.1% Q/Q Currency Split % of Unlisted Fair Value USD +1.8% Other USD EUR GBP 7% 23% 1% 5% +5.4% EUR SEK 63% GBP +10.0% +10.3% NOK LTM NOK (2.8)% 30
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