Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Pitch Book
Morgan Stanley
2 Discounted Equity Value - Based on CY2025E LFCF
Street and Management Cases; Value at 12/31/2024 Discounted to 9/12/2022 (1)(2)(4)
SMM, Except Where Noted
2025E Revenue
2025E FCF
2025E FCF Margin
2025E Multiple
Implied Future EV
Current FDSO
Annual Basic Share Increase
Future FDSO
Future Price per Share
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Discount Period (Years)
Price Per Share NPV
Current
NTM
Multiple
39.2x
@$19.41
P/NTM Multiple
30.0x
35.0x
40.0x
45.0x
Street Case
585
143
24.4%
35.0x
$5,002
185.0
0 8%
189.4
$26.40
Street Case
Implied Fully-Diluted Future
Share Price (at Dec 2024)
(3)
$143
24%
$22.65
$26.40
CY2025E LFCF, Margin
$30.15
Management Case
697
208
29.8%
$33.91
35.0x
$7,284
Notes
1. Market data and consensus as of 9/12/2022
2. Management reflects forecast provided by Management on 8/12/2022
3. Cost of equity of 12.3% based on 1.49 Barra predicted beta, 3.4 % risk-free rate and 6.0% market risk premium
PROJECT ORANGE
185.1
1.0%
190.7
$38.20
Management Case
$208
30%
$32.77
$38.20
$43.64
$49.08
Discounted 2.3
Years at 12.3% Cost
of Equity
Street Case
PRELIMINARY AND CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
12.3%
230
$20.22
Street Case
Discounted Fully-Diluted
Future Share Price
$17.35
$20.22
$23.09
Management Case
$25.97
12.3%
2.30
$29.26
Management Case
$25.09
$29.26
$33.42
$37.59
4. Current FDSO based on implied share price; represents annualized increase in basic shares through 12/31/2023
5. Share creep calculated based on projected cumulative SBC divided by current share price to determine CAGR over the period
2022 to 2025
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