Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
POTENTIAL AMGP PERSPECTIVES ON EXCHANGE RATIO
Relative cash flow contribution analysis
FORECAST CASH FLOW CONTRIBUTION (¹)
Distr. Cash Flow
(2)
Distributions
AM
AMGP
Implied AM/AMGP
Exchange Rate
AM
AMGP
Implied AM/AMGP
Exchange Rate
2018
$385
153
2.51x
$321
105
2019
3.05x
$514
250
2.06x
$414
174
Near-Term
2.37x
2020
$606
318
Near-term implied exchange ratios are high
based on relative cash flow contribution
1.90x
$533
264
2021
2.02x
$702
390
1.80x
$640
344
1.86x
Source: Antero management projections.
(1)
AM DCF represents distributable cash flow attributable to LP unitholders at a full payout.
AMGP DCF calculated as total IDR cash flow at a full payout, less G&A and taxes on such amount.
AMGP distributions cakulated as total IDR cash flow at management distribution coverage, less G&A and taxes on such amount.
Note that such analyses assume the Series 8 units on an as-converted basis.
Relative terminal yields required to match the 1.65x exchange ratio in the AMGP proposal.
Contkenskt Freliminar: Praft
2022
$803
465
1.73x
$767
439
1.75x
Terminal
Yield (2)
~8.0%
~7.0%
~8.0%
~7.0%
Using this methodology implies ~100 bps
difference in terminal yields to match the
1.65x offered exchange rate
Long-Term
Terminal
Value
$10,036
6,471
1.55x
$9,590
...but decline when factoring in
a terminal value
6,266
BAIRD
1.53x
PV-15%
$7,051
4,274
1.65x
$6,580
3,986
1.65x
AMGP
Proposal
Project Bronco | Page 2View entire presentation