Melrose Results Presentation Deck
Million
250
■
Aerospace outlook: structurally growing market
■
■
Flight hours returning strongly
22-25
CAGR: 12%
200
150
100
50
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Melrose
2023
Source: Cirium ■Narrow body ■Wide body
2024
2025
Buy
Improve 1.
Sell
2026
2027
2028
Global air traffic ramping up further as
China reopens H1 2023
Strong 'bounce back' in passenger demand
in 2021/22
2029
Recovery to 2019 levels now expected in
late 2023/early 2024
2030
■ Airlines broke revenue records in summer
2022, despite struggling to meet demand
due to aircraft and staff shortages
Estimated US procurement spend in $billion
2500
2000
1500
OEM deliveries ramping up fast
22-25
CAGR: 17%
1000
■
■
■
■
500
Source: Teal
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Narrow body ■Wide body
2028
2029
2030
Strong demand for new aircraft from airlines
as travel ramps up on ageing fleet
Combination of COVID and 737 MAX issues
resulted in >2,500 fewer aircraft produced in
last 4 years
OEMs struggling to meet demand as supply
chain and labour issues pace production
ramp-up
Backlogs range between 5 and 8 years with
narrow body now -11,000 aircraft
200¹
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
■
■
I
Defence spending increasing
22-27
CAGR: 4%
III
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Source: US DoD, estimates only published until 2027
Forecast sustained growth in Western
government defence spending
Underpinned by heightened geopolitical
uncertainty and near peer threat
Political focus on increased NATO budget
after years of under investment v GDP
Strong demand for established platforms
e.g. F-35 booking slots beyond 2030,
plus new technologies
26View entire presentation