Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Management Projections: AR
AR Downside Pricing at Base Volumes Case
(in millions, unless otherwise noted)
Production Volumes (MMcfe/d)
1.847
332 105
1,379
2016A
$588
$164
$1,464
2,253
131 419
2016A
1,620
2017A
Capital Expenditures
$2,216
$1,854
$163
$238
Gas ONGLS (excl. Ethane) o Ethane Ol
2017A-2022ZE CAGR: 18%
$1,452
2,702
2017A
40 465
1,920
2018E
3,330
286
56 603
$1,511
2,382
2018E
2019E
$1,660 $1,684
$149
$95
$1,589
2019E
59
Source: Management projections, Company Filings.
(1) AM fully consolidated in SEC financial statement.
(2) Free cash flow net of land maintenance capital.
3,945
342
712
2,822
2020E
☐Drilling Leasehold Acquisition & Maintenance Acquisitions
$1,780
$81
70
4,545
402
2020E
834
3,222
2021E
$1,850
$103
$1,699 $1,747
87
2021E
5,194
471
974
3,644
2022E
1105
$2,112
$105
$2,007
202 ZE
EBITDAX(1)
$1,406
$1,003
$291
2016A
$19
EBITDAX (Excl. Hedges) Income from Hedges OLP Distributions from AM.
$1,250
$135
$214
Base Case
Downside Pricing Case
20184
$901
2017A
$1,774
$170
$464
$1,140
2018E
$1,615
$184
5909
$317
$298
Free Cash Flow (2)
Free Cash Flow (Net of Land Maintenance Capex)
Cumulative Free Cash Flow
2018E-2022E
2019A
2017A-2022E CAGR: 13%
$1,886
$219
$851
$817
2019E
$1,811
$282
$388
$297
($20)
2020E
$1,141
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2020E
$182
($115)
2021E
$1,889
$338
$128
$1,422
2021E
$2,263
$405
$155
$1,703
2022E
Cumulative FCF
$184
1
2022E
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&CO
SERGY INVESTMENT &
MERCHANT BANKING
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