Spring 2023 Solar Industry Update slide image

Spring 2023 Solar Industry Update

PV Annual Installations (GWdc) 500 400 300 200 100 Change in Recent Global PV Demand Projections 4 +81 GW 3 +34 GW 2 +42 GW 1 261 GW in 2025 0 2020 2021 12022 2023④ 2024 2025 2026 Reported Drivers of Growth in Installed PV Projections 1. Projections in Mid to Late 2021: COVID-19 coming under control, improving supply chains, reduced geopolitical trade risks. 2. Projections in Early 2022: invasion of Ukraine by Russia, increasing desire for energy security, increasing conventional energy prices, improving supply chains, higher national PV targets. 3. Projections in Mid to Late 2022: increasing conventional energy prices, increasing polysilicon supply, declining module prices, adjusting for underestimation of global market in official installation statistics. 4. Projections in Late 2022 to Early 2023: oversupply throughout supply chain, declining module prices, large module inventories, IRA and other U.S. policies, energy cost inflation in Europe, supply chain normalization in China, potentially explosive growth constrained only by local conditions (permitting, interconnection, labor, financing, etc.). Sources: BNEF, Global PV Market Outlook, 11/25/21, 3/1/22, 8/26/22, 2/28/23; Goldman Sachs, Americas Clean Technology: Solar 2021 Outlook, 01/09/22; Goldman Sachs, Americas Clean Technology: Solar, Assessing the Impact of Volatile Macro - Oil, Commodities & EU in Focus, Raise Demand View Thru 2025, 3/29/22; Goldman Sachs, America's Clean Technology: Solar, 2023 Outlook, 12/18/22; NREL, Solar Industry Update, 1/11/22, 4/26/22, 10/27/22, 4/27/23; Solar Power Europe, Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021-2025, 7/20/21; Solar Power Europe, Global Market Outlook For Solar Power: 2022-2026, 5/22. NREL | 8
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