Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
that holders of preference shares receive proceeds in priority over holders
of common shares in the event of a sale or public offering. In general,
these liquidation preferences have the result that Kinnevik recoups its
investment capital if the valuation of the company exceeds the amount
of capital it has raised in aggregate. Due to liquidation preferences, the
allocation of proceeds between shareholders in a liquidity event may
become increasingly complex over time, and Kinnevik's share of proceeds
may significantly deviate from its percentage ownership of the investee
company's issued equity. Accordingly, an increase or decrease in value
of an investee company's equity where liquidation preferences are ap-
plicable may result in a disproportionate increase or decrease in the fair
value of Kinnevik's shareholding. Liquidation preferences may also entail
that the fair value of Kinnevik's investment remains unchanged in spite of
the assessed value of a particular investee company as a whole changing
materially. An unlisted investee company's transition into a publicly listed
company may also affect the value of Kinnevik's shareholding due to the
dismantling or triggering of such provisions.
Liquidation preferences, as described above, naturally become more
relevant during a market drawdown such as the one we are experiencing
during 2022. The majority of our investments carry these types of down-
side protection provisions, and the effect of these provisions become the
most pronounced in companies where we have only invested in the latest
financing round. In these investments, the fair value of our investment may
remain unchanged in spite of material downwards adjustments to the
underlying valuation of each relevant company. At the end of the quarter,
the aggregate fair value impact from liquidation preferences amounted
to approximately SEK 3.2bn and was primarily centred to a handful of
later-stage companies. The same figure amounted to around SEK 2.7bn
at the end of the third quarter, and the difference was negligible at the
end of 2021. As such, the incremental effect in the fourth quarter amounts
to SEK 0.4bn, due to rounding, and SEK 3.2bn in 2022.
This value difference means that if Kinnevik's shareholdings would
not enjoy said liquidation preferences, the fair value of the unlisted
portfolio would be SEK 3.2bn lower. In other terms, the underlying val-
ue of Kinnevik's investments in these companies needs to increase by
SEK 3.2bn before the accrual of an on-paper return on investment. This
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q4 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
notwithstanding, the fair values included in Kinnevik's net asset value
statement correspond to the proceeds Kinnevik is entitled to receive in
the event of a sale of each investment at the assessed underlying value
of each company.
AGGREGATE VALUE CHANGES AND DRIVERS
On average, the valuation of each of our companies decreased by 18
percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 when excluding VillageMD, and by
54 percent during 2022, when excluding Budbee, Monese, Omio and
VillageMD. Including these companies, the average decrease amount-
ed to around 17 percent in the fourth quarter and around 42 percent
during 2022.
Similar to the previous quarter, contracting multiples was the sin-
gle-most important driver of the value change in our unlisted portfolio
during the quarter. Indicatively, multiple contraction had a negative effect
of SEK 4.6bn on our valuations in the quarter. Revenue growth offset some
of the impact of compressing valuation levels with an equally indicative
positive contribution of around SEK 2.7bn.
The Swedish krona strengthened by 6 percent against the dollar in
the fourth quarter and weakened by 2 percent against the euro. Per the
end of the fourth quarter, the currency exposure of the unlisted portfolio
was approximately 60 percent in USD, 23 percent in EUR, and 9 per-
cent in NOK and GBP (with the balance in SEK). In aggregate, currency
changes contributed to a negative effect on the valuations of our unlist-
ed investments of around SEK 0.9bn in the quarter. As outlined above,
the incremental positive effect of liquidation preferences in the quarter
amounted to SEK 0.4bn. Other effects such as investee cash burn and
dilution had a negative SEK 1.0bn impact.
OUR INVESTEES RELATIVE TO THEIR VALUATION PEER GROUPS
In our interim report for the first quarter of 2022, we rearranged our NAV
statement. Our aim with the new categorization is to group our private
investments in a more refined way, sorting them with their shared publicly
listed comparable companies in mind. This, we believe, together with the
aggregated financial metrics we are now providing for each category,
is a step forward in terms of transparency of the performance and our
Financial Statements
Other
assessed valuations of our unlisted assets. The table on page 29 (which
includes valuations underpinned by transactions) outlining these financial
metrics for our new NAV categories and their peer groups should be
read together with the qualitative commentary provided on the following
pages - including the referencing of SaaS companies in assessing the fair
value of our virtual care investments. Please also note that the averages
for Kinnevik's unlisted investees are weighted by fair value in the fourth
quarter, and provided as indicative ranges since differences between
individual companies may be material. For the categories where our
companies are growing at considerably higher rates than the peer group
average, our valuation multiples are typically at a premium to the peer
group's average. This spread is calibrated against e.g. the correlation of
growth and profitability to valuation multiples for comparable companies
in public markets. The average premium is considerably smaller (or at a
discount) when benchmarking our valuations against more richly valued
constituents in each relevant peer group, or when looking at expectations
further out than the next 12 months. Premiums to the peer group average
multiple narrow over time as our companies continue to outpace the
growth of its valuation benchmarks, resonating with the level of risk that
venture and growth capital investments entail.
VALUE-BASED CARE
Value-Based Care consists of care delivery companies that take risk
on, and are paid on the basis of, patient health outcomes. Our larger
investments in this category - Cityblock and Village MD - historically been
benchmarked against a peer set of businesses in various ways delivering
or driving a shift towards value-based care, such as Oak Street Health
(OSH), Agilon Health (AGL), and Signify Health (SGFY). On average, the
companies in the peer set grew revenue by 40 percent in 2022 with
gross margins of 25 percent, and trade at around 2.5x NTM revenues.
Our businesses grow significantly faster albeit with slimmer gross mar-
gins, and are valued at around 3.0-4.0x NTM revenues on average.
Over the past quarters, several businesses used as benchmarks for our
valuations have been subject to takeover offers or speculation thereof,
causing significant volatility in valuation multiples. In our valuations, we
note these offers' indication of investor appetite in the space but seek to
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