Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Management Projections: AMGP
AR Downside Volumes Case
(in millions, unless otherwise noted)
IDR LLC, Series B Cash Flow, and Tax Observations
IDR LLC owns the 100% of the IDRS in AM and has two share classes
AMGP owns 100% of the Series A units
Management owns 100% of the Series B units
■
☐
■
Series B unitholders are entitled to receive up to 6% of the
distributions from AM in excess of $7.5MM per quarter
Remaining profits pass through AMGP via Series A shares
Series B units scheduled to vest at a value of 6% of equity value
above $2 billion in the event of a liquidation of IDR LLC
AMGP currently pays corporate taxes of 21% and 4% at the federal
and state taxes, respectively
IDR LLC Cash Flow
Distributions to AMGP □ Taxes DGBA Series B Reserved CF
$69
$17 $1 5316
$10 $48
2016A
2017A
$2
$144
$101
$2
$225
$53
$157
2019E
$2
$306
$73
$215
2020E
$2
(3)
(4)
(5) Illustrative yield based on regression analysis as presented on page 91.
$380
$90
$266
2021E
$2
$464
$26
$111
$326
2022E
AMGP Total Distributions
SQ AM Distribution Policy
2018E
Source: Management Projections, Company Filings.
(1)
Implied AMGP and Series B valuation from 2016A through 2020E based on 2018E yield.
Implied AMGP and Series B valuation from 2021E forward based on yield vs growth regression analysis derived on slide 18.
Excludes IPO related GEA.
Series & Valuation calculated as 6% of the valuation of AMGP less $2 billion.
$52
$10
GRADI
2016A
Serie: B Take
Taxes
AM Distributions to IDR LLC
Cash Distributions to AMGP
$86
CAFD to AMGP Shareholders
rathe Yeld
AMGP Valuation
2017A
Series B Valuation
$48
$144
$101
AMGP & Series B Unit Valuation (1,2,5)
2018E
$17
(7)
$192
$10
$157
NUW
2019E
2016A 2017A 2018
(7)
$59
$1,700
SQ AM Fully Distributed
$273
N/A
$215
2020E
$137
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
$101
3.3%
$213
(2)
(53)
$157
3.3%
$3,049 54.769
$314
202 1E
$166
$266
2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
$290
(2)
(73)
$215
$371
$270
$326
2022E
(2)
(90)
$266
$5,512
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
*18 - '22
CAGR
EVERGY INVESTMENT &
MERCHANT BANKING
34%
27%!
$438
(2)
$326
5.7%
$224
79View entire presentation