Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book
Sensitivity Case #2 - Illustrative Unit 8 Expansion Economics
2 Illustrative Unit 8 Expansion Economics
Evercore analyzed the illustrative returns of the Unit 8 Expansion
Assumptions are consistent with the Sensitivity Case #2
Unit 8 growth capital expenditures ranging from $504.2 million to $835.0 million, spent evenly throughout 2023E and 2024E
1.0 million metric tons of new soda ash production capacity coming online January 1, 2025
Terminal Value assumes a 6.75x EBITDA multiple
Initial Investment
SIRE's Share of Initial Investment (51%)
Incremental EBITDA
SIRE's Share of Incremental EBITDA (51%)
Incremental Unlevered Free Cash Flow
SIRE's Share of Incremental Unlevered Free Cash Flow (51%)
EBITDA Multiple
Implied Terminal Value
Total Unlevered Free Cash Flow to SIRE from Unit 8 Expansion
IRR
Discount Rate
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
EVERCORE
Unit 8 Expansion Internal Rate of Return
Implied Unit 8 NPV
Unit 8 Growth Capital Expenditures
$600.0
($12.9)
(22.1)
(30.7)
(38.8)
(46.3)
(53.3)
$504.2
$31.6
22.0
13.0
4.5
(3.4)
(10.8)
$700.0
($59.3)
(68.1)
(76.3)
(84.0)
(91.1)
(97.8)
13.5%
$835.0
($121.9)
(130.2)
(137.9)
(145.0)
(151.7)
(157.8)
2023E
2024E
($252.1) ($252.1)
(128.6)
(128.6)
($252.1)
(128.6)
($128.6)
36
Discount Rate
Confidential - Preliminary and Subject to Change
For the Years Ending December 31,
2025E
2026E
($242.0)
(123.4)
($123.4)
($ in millions, except per unit amounts,
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
$80.6
41.1
$87.2
44.5
$44.5
$--
$504.2
$1.56
1.09
0.64
0.22
(0.17)
(0.53)
$78.6
40.1
$85.5
43.6
$43.6
2027E
$--
--
$74.9
38.2
$82.0
41.8
$41.8
2028E
$--
$73.8
37.6
$80.3
41.0
$41.0
Impact to Implied SIRE Common Unit Value
Unit 8 Growth Capital Expenditures
$600.0
($0.64)
(1.09)
(1.52)
(1.92)
(2.29)
(2.64)
Exit
Multiple
$700.0
($2.94)
(3.37)
(3.78)
(4.16)
(4.51)
(4.84)
$37.6
6.75x
$254.0
$254.0
$835.0
($6.04)
(6.45)
(6.83)
(7.18)
(7.51)
(7.81)
ŞİŞECAMView entire presentation