Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
After-Tax Distribution Accretion / (Dilution)
For Average AM Unit Holder at AMGP Proposal at 1.0x Coverage for AM & PF AMGP | AR Downside Volumes Case
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.679x Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
Exchange Ratio
$1.01
$0.94
($0.07)
PF AMGP Coverage 1.000x
Cash
Consid. /
Unit
$3.415
$3.415
$3.415
(7.1%)
$3.415
2H 2018E
$3.000
1.679x
1.696x
1.713x
1.730x
(4.0%)
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
Implied
After-Tax 2H 2018E
XR
1.732x
2019E
$2.40
$2.30
($0.10)
1.000x
2019E
(4.0%)
(3.8%)
(5.3%)
(3.7%)
2020E
$3.00
$2.84
($0.16)
1.000x
2020E
(5.3%)
(5.0%)
(4.7%)
(6.5%)
(5.0%)
2021E
$3.30
$3.08
($0.21)
1.000x
2021E
(6.5%)
(5.7%)
(6.28)
(15.2%)
2022E
$3.71
$3.15
($0.56)
1.000x
AM Proposal
2022E
(15.2%)
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.0x AM Coverage
Status Quo AMGP:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage
Exchange Ratio
1.679x
1,696x
1.713x
1.730x
94.3%
1.732x
2H 2018E
$0.29
$0.56
$0.27
1.000x
2H 2018E
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018
Note: After-tax distributions is distribution from entity less attributable qualified dividends and gains on capital taxes.
Note: 1.679x implied after-tax XR represents a 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to eliminate unitholder tax liability.
94.38
90.8%
75.6%
89.18
2019E
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
$0.78
$1.37
$0.59
1.000x
2019E
75.6%
74.0%
72.5%
52.7%
71.0%
2020E
$1.11
$1.69
$0.58
1.000x
2020E
52.7%
51.6%
50.6%
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
49.5%
44.5%
2021E
$1.27
$1.84
$0.57
1.000x
2021E
42.5%
41.5%
40.5%
2022E
25.2%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
EVEAUT INVESTMENTS
MERCHANT BANKING
25.2%
2022E
$1.50
$1.87
$0.38
1.000k
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