Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Contribution Analysis | AR Base Case
AMGP DCF Contribution Based On Theoretical Taxes On All Distributable Cash Flow
Contribution Analysis Implied Ownership
2017A DCF
2018 DCF
2019E DCF
2020E DCF
2021E DCF
2022E DCF
20174 Distributions
2018 Distributions
2019 Distributions
2020 Distributions
2021 Distributions
2022 Distributions
78.6%
72.7%
68.7%
67.1%
65.9%
65.0%
82.9%
75.9%
71.5%
AM
68.3%
66.6%
65.3%
AMGP
21.4%
27.3%
31.3%
32.9%
34.1%
35.0%
17.1%
24.1%
28.5%
31.7%
33.4%
34.7%
Imped exchange ratios utilize adjusted AMGP share count of fully diluted AMGP shares outstanding 18.5mm converted Series 5 units.
AM Proposal: 1.710x XR and $3.00 cash consideration / unit. AMGP Proposal: 1.614x XR and $3.415 cach consideration / unit.
Implied Exchange Ratio | Series B Adjusted (1,2)
AMGP Proposal:
1.797x
2017A DCF
2018E DCF
2019E DCF
2020E DCF
2021E DCF
2022E DCF
2017A Distributions
2018 Distributions
2019 Distributions
2020 Distributions
2021 Distributions
2022 Distributions
Sources Management projections. FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
Note: AM DCF calculated as LP Interest in EBITDA less interest expense, maintenance capex, and tax withholding reimbursements paid to AR. AMGP DCF calculated as IDR DCF less taxes on totall IDR DCF
less GBA expandes AMGP distributions defined as distributions attributable to IDR, LLC less taxes paid on full distributions available to IDR, LLC GA
Note: Cash taxshield from Series 8 depreciation of -S6mm per year.
12)
11
1
I
II
11
T
T
I
I
I
T
II
II
II
AM Proposal: 1.884x
2.197x
2.039x
1.934x
2.659x
1.857x
11 2.156x
2.503x
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
1.996x
1.881x
3.670x
3.158x
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
MERCHANT BANKING
5.364x
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