Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Discount Rate
Has / Gets Analysis | AR Base Case
AMGP Pre Unitholder Tax | Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
8.0%
Stand Alone AMGP Implied Share Price
Discounted Distribution Analysis
10.0%
12.0%
14.0x
$27.09
$25.50
7.0%
$27.54
$25.92
$24.43
2022E CAFD Multiple
16.0x
$30.44
$28.64
$26.98
2022E Distribution Yield
5.5%
$34.07
$32.05
$30.18
18.0x
$33.79
$31.79
$29.93
$45.50
$42.76
$40.24
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Discount Rate
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
Discount Rate
12.0%
8.0%
Discounted Distribution Analysis
10.0%
12.0%
7.0%
PF AMGP Implied Share Price
8.5%
10.0x
$26.35
10.0%
$24.87
$23.50
7.00
$28.21
$26.56
11.0x
$24.78
$23.52
$22.34
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
(1) Unlevered free cash flow defined as PF AMGP EBITDA less cash taxes and capital expenditures. Implied equity value per share backs out implied AM Q2
2018 net debt per share.
2022E DCF Multiple
12.0x
$30.49
$28.75
$27.15
2022E Distribution Yield
6.0%
$32.27
$30.37
Discounted Cash Flow | Unlevered FCF(1) | Discounted at WACC
$28.61
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2022E Terminal Multiple
13.0x
$29.06
$27.60
$26.22
14.0x
$34.64
$32.64
$30.79
5.0%
$37.95
$35.70
$33.62
15.0x
$33.34
$31.68
$30.11
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
ENERGY NYESTIVENTA
MERCHANT BANKING
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