Maersk Investor Presentation Deck
Guidance
Full-year guidance for 2021
Given the current outlook and high degree of uncertainty related to the continued
impact from COVID-19 on the economic growth and global demand patterns, A.P.
Moller-Maersk expects for the full-year 2021:
Underlying EBITDA in the range of USD 8.5-10.5bn compared to USD 8.3bn in
2020
Underlying EBIT in the range of USD 4.3-6.3bn compared to USD 4.2bn in 2020
Free cash flow (FCF) above USD 3.5bn compared to USD 4.6bn in 2020
As part of the full-year guidance for 2021 A.P. Moller - Maersk expects the current
exceptional situation with the demand surge leading to bottlenecks in the supply
chain and equipment shortage, which contributed approximately USD 1.5bn to EBIT
in 2020, to continue in Q1 and normalise thereafter. Consequently, A.P. Moller -
Maersk expects profitability in the first quarter 2021 to be above Q4 2020.
Ocean is expected to grow in line with the global container demand at an expected
3-5% in 2021, with the highest growth seen in the first half-year.
For the years 2021-2022 the accumulated CAPEX is still expected to be
USD 4.5-5.5bn.
Underlying EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation adjusted
for restructuring and integration costs
Underlying EBIT: Operating profit before interest and taxes adjusted for restructuring and
integration costs, net gains/losses from sale of non-current assets and net impairments
23
Annual Report 2020
Sensitivity guidance
A.P. Moller - Maersk's financial performance for the full-year 2021 depends
on several factors and is subject to uncertainties related to COVID-19, bunker
fuel prices and freight rates given the uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
All else being equal, the sensitivities for the full-year 2021 for four key
assumptions are listed in the table below:
Factors
Container freight rate
Container freight volume
Bunker price (net of expected
BAF coverage)
Rate of exchange (net of
hedges)
Change
+/- 100 USD/FFE
+/- 100,000 FFE
+/- 100 USD/tonne
+/- 10% change in USD
Effect on EBIT
(Full-year 2021)
+/- USD 1.3bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
-/+ USD 0.4bn
+/- USD 0.2bn
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