Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
After-Tax Distribution Accretion / (Dilution)
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
For Average AM Unit Holder at AMGP Proposal at 1.0x Coverage for AM & PF AMGP | AR Base Case
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.679x Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
Exchange Ratio
$1.08
$1.02
($0.05)
PF AMGP Coverage 1.000x
Cash
Consid. /
$3.415
$3.415
$3.415
(4.9%)
$3.415
2H 2018E
$3.000
1.679x
1.696x
1.713x
1.730x
(0.4%)
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
Implied
After-Tax 2H 2018E
XR
1.732x
2019E
$2.73
$2.72
($0.01)
1.000x
2019E
(0.2%)
(0.1%)
(0.0%)
(1.8%)
(0.6%)
2020E
$3.21
$3.15
($0.06)
1.000x
2020E
(1.8%)
(1.5%)
(1.7%)
(1.0%)
2021E
$3.71
$3.65
($0.06)
1.000x
2021E
(1.7%)
(1.2%)
(6.0%)
2022E
$4.23
$3.98
($0.25)
1.000x
AM Proposal
2022E
(5.8%)
(5.7%)
(5.5%)
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.0x AM Coverage
Status Quo AMGP:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage
Exchange Ratio
1.679x
1.696x
1.713x
88.1%
1.730x
2H 2018E
$0.32
$0.61
$0.29
1.000x
2H 2018E
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018
Note: After-tax distributions is distribution from entity less attributable qualified dividends and gains on capital taxes.
Note: 1.679x implied after-tax XR represents a 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to eliminate unitholder tax liability.
88.1%
84.8%
83.1%
68.7%
81.7%
2019E
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
$0.96
$1.62
$0.66
1.000x
2019E
68.7%
65.7%
53.9%
64.2%
2020E
$1.22
$1.88
$0.66
1.000x
2020E
53.9%
52.7%
51.6%
45.6%
50.5%
2021E
$1.49
$2.17
$0.68
1.000k
2021E
45.6%
44.5%
2022E
33.2%
31.0%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
33.2%
2022E
$1.78
$2.37
$0.59
1.000k
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