Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
AM DCF Analysis | AR Downside Volumes Case
Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Levered DCF Attributable to AM LP Unitholders
Discount Rate
10.0%
12.0%
9.0x
LP DCF per Unit
Discount Factor
PV of LP DCF per Unit
$34.30
$32.41
$30.66
2H 2018E
$1.01
0.976
$0.98
2022E DCF Multiple
Disc. LP DCF Total
Terminal Multiple
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Unit
Implied Value per Unit
10.5x
$38.61
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
$36.45
$34.45
2019E
$2.40 $3.02
0.826
$2.50
$2.19
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
12.0x
$42.91
$40.49
$38.25
2020E 2021E
$3.33
0.751
$2.50
2022E
$3.76
$8.17
10.5
0.716
$28.28
$36.45
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Distributions Attributable to LP Unitholders
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
LP Distribution Per Unit
8.0%
Discount Factor
PV of LP Dist. per Unit
$40.04
$37.76
$35.66
2022E Distribution Yield
7.0%
Disc. LP Dist. Total
Terminal Yield
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Unit
Implied Value per Unit
$44.71
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
$42.14
$39.76
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
6.0%
$50.92
$47.97
$45.24
2021E
2H 2018E 2019E 2020E
$0.86 $2.15 $2.58 $2.97
0.976 0.909 0.826
$0.84 $1.95 $2.13
0.751
$2.23
2022E
$3.42
$7.15
7.0%
0.716
$34.99
$42.14
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