Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Discount Rate
Has / Gets Analysis | AR Downside Volumes Case
AM Pre - Unitholder Tax | Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
8.0%
Stand Alone AM Implied Unit Price
Discounted Distribution Analysis
10.0%
12.0%
$34.30
$32.41
$30.66
$40.04
$37.76
$35.66
2022E DCF Multiple
10.5x
$38.61
$36.45
$34.45
2022E Distribution Yield
7.0%
$44.71
$42.14
$39.76
12.0x
$42.91
$38.25
$50.92
$47.97
$45.24
XR Adjusted PF AMGP Implied Share Price | 1.797x XR(¹)
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Discount Rate
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
Discount Rate
12.0%
Discounted Distribution Analysis
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
7.0%
10.0x
$37.02
8.5%
$35.15
10.0%
$33.43
7.0%
$39.64
$37.54
11.0x
$35.87
$34.24
$32.71
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
(1) Implied XR at 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash consideration added to implied share price at 1.614x XR.
(2) Unlevered free cash flow defined as PF AMGP EBITDA less cash taxes and capital expenditures. Implied equity value per share backs out implied AM Q2
2018 net debt per share.
2022E DCF Multiple
12.0x
$42.15
$39.96
$37.94
Discounted Cash Flow | Unlevered FCF(2)| Discounted at WACC
2022E Distribution Yield
6.0%
$44.77
$42.35
$40.12
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2022E Terminal Multiple
13.0x
$41.17
$39.29
$37.52
14.0x
$47.28
$44.77
5.0%
$51.96
$49.09
$46.45
15.0x
$46.47
$44.33
$42.33
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
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