Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value value of Kinnevik's shareholding. Liquidation preferences may also entail that the fair value of Kinnevik's investment remains unchanged in spite of the assessed value of a particular investee company as a whole changing materially. An unlisted investee company's transition into a publicly listed company may also affect the value of Kinnevik's shareholding due to the dismantling or triggering of such provisions. Liquidation preferences, as described above, naturally become more relevant during a market drawdown such as the one we are experiencing during 2022. The majority of our investments carry these types of down- side protection provisions, and the effect of these provisions become the most pronounced in companies where we have only invested in the latest financing round. In these investments, the fair value of our investment may remain unchanged in spite of material downwards adjustments to the underlying valuation of each relevant company. At the end of the quarter, the aggregate fair value impact from liquidation preferences amounted to approximately SEK 2.7bn and was primarily centred to a handful of new investments made in 2021 and early 2022. The same figure amounted to around SEK 2.4bn at the end of the second quarter, and the difference was negligible at the end of 2021. As such, the incremental effect in the third quarter amounts to SEK 0.4bn (due to rounding), and SEK 2.7bn in 2022 to date. This value difference means that if Kinnevik's shareholdings would not enjoy said liquidation preferences, the fair value of the unlisted portfolio would be SEK 2.7bn lower. In other terms, the underlying val- ue of Kinnevik's investments in these companies needs to increase by SEK 2.7bn before the accrual of an on-paper return on investment. This notwithstanding, the fair values included in Kinnevik's net asset value statement correspond to the proceeds Kinnevik is entitled to receive in the event of a sale of each investment at the assessed underlying value of each company. AGGREGATE VALUE CHANGES AND DRIVERS On average, the valuation of each of our companies decreased by 13 percent in the third quarter of 2022 when excluding companies where our valuations are underpinned by transactions that took place during the third quarter (Budbee and Monese), and by almost 40 percent dur- KINNEVIK Interim Report Q3 2022 Portfolio Overview Sustainability ing 2022 to date. Including these two companies, the average decrease amounted to around 10 percent in the third quarter and around 30 percent during 2022 to date. Similar to the previous quarter, contracting multiples was the sin- gle-most important driver of the value change in our unlisted portfolio during the quarter. Indicatively, multiple contraction had a negative effect of SEK 4.5bn on our valuations in the quarter. Excluding the valuations that are underpinned by arms-length transactions in the quarter and thereby concluded in the current valuation environment (Budbee and Monese), the effect of multiple contraction was closer to SEK 5.2bn. Revenue growth offset most of the impact of compressing valuation levels with a positive contribution of around SEK 3.7bn. The Swedish krona continued to weaken materially in the third quarter, in particular against the dollar. Per the end of the third quarter, the currency exposure of the unlisted portfolio was approximately 62 percent in USD, 22 percent in EUR, and 8 percent in NOK and GBP (with the balance in SEK). In aggregate, currency changes contributed to a positive effect on the valuations of our unlisted investments of around SEK 1.5bn in the quarter. As outlined above, the incremental positive effect of liquidation preferences in the quarter amounted to SEK 0.4bn. The aggregate positive effect from these two factors of SEK 1.9bn is what bridges the downward reassessments of the underlying valuations of our unlisted portfolio to the 1 percent write-up outlined in our net asset value statement. In 2022 to date, the positive effect of currency movements amounts to SEK 3.9bn and that of liquidation preferences (in constant currencies) amounts to SEK 2.4bn, or SEK 6.2bn in total. Other effects such as investee cash burn and dilution had a negative SEK 0.8bn impact. OUR INVESTEES RELATIVE TO THEIR VALUATION PEER GROUPS In our interim report for the first quarter of 2022, we rearranged our NAV statement. Our aim with the new categorization is to group our private investments in a more refined way, sorting them with their shared publicly listed comparable companies in mind. This, we believe, together with the aggregated financial metrics we are now providing for each category, is a step forward in terms of transparency of the performance and our assessed valuations of our unlisted assets. The table on page 29 (which Financial Statements Other includes valuations underpinned by transactions in the quarter in Budbee and Monese) outlining these financial metrics for our new NAV catego- ries and their peer groups should be read together with the qualitative commentary provided on the following pages - including the referencing of lower-margin SaaS companies in assessing the fair value of our virtual care investments. Please also note that the averages for Kinnevik's unlisted investees are weighted by fair value and provided as indicative ranges as differences between individual companies may be material. For the categories where our companies are growing at considerably higher rates than the peer group average, our valuation multiples are typically at a premium to the peer group's average. This spread is calibrated by valuations ascribed to our businesses in arms-length transactions and by the correlation of growth and profitability against valuation multiples for comparable companies in public markets. The average premium is considerably smaller (or at a discount) when benchmarking our valuations against more richly valued constituents in each relevant peer group. Premiums to the peer group average multiple narrow over time as our companies continue to outpace the growth of its valuation benchmarks. When relating our assessed valuations to financial metrics a year further out than the next twelve months, virtually all of our valuations are within the ranges of their respective peer group. VALUE-BASED CARE Value-Based Care consists of care delivery companies that take risk on, and are paid on the basis of, patient health outcomes. Our larger invest- ments in this category - Cityblock and VillageMD - are benchmarked against a peer set of businesses in various ways delivering or driving a shift towards value-based care, such as Oak Street Health (OSH), Agilon Health (AGL), and Signify Health (SGFY). On average, the companies in the peer set grew revenue by 55 percent in 2021 with gross margins of 25 percent, and trade at around 3x NTM revenues. Our businesses grew twice as fast with slightly slimmer gross margins, and are valued at around 3.0-4.5x NTM revenues on average. In the quarter, three of six businesses used as benchmarks for our valuations were subject to takeover offers or speculation thereof, driving not insignificant multiple expansion. In our valuation, we note these offers' indication of investor appetite in the space 31
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