Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
legitimacy factors point to areas in which rebel groups can take action to bolster their legitimacy,
or fail to take action, thereby reducing their legitimacy. If the presence or removal of a
legitimating factor is confirmed, rebel action taken as a result of heightened or reduced
legitimacy will be tracked to determine the outcomes of heightened legitimacy on rebel access to
resources, relationships, and networks. If a connection between legitimacy and resource avenues
is identified, the outcomes of rebel access to these avenues will be traced to evaluate how these
avenues contributed to rebel success.
The rebellion in Chechnya, active from 1990 to 2007, was identified as a case study for
this framework for several reasons. Chechnya was chosen as a single case study due to to allow
for an initial in-depth analytical application of the framework. The complexity of the rebellion in
Chechnya makes it both a challenging and intriguing case for analysis. For the purposes of this
paper, the "Chechen rebellion" refers to the separatist movement led by the de facto government
and separatist insurgency, motivated by the objective of achieving an independent Chechen state.
This specific rebellion was chosen for several reasons. First, the movement experienced high
rates of success from 1991-1996 and a rapid deterioration in success following 1996. The rapid
growth and reduction in success allows for a neutral analysis of the influence of legitimacy
factors on rebel success in a context with relatively stable actor involvement, natural resources,
geographic territory, and objectives. Additionally, this time frame allows for an evaluation of the
natural initiation and end of the movement to establish the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. 1990
signified the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the initial rebel control of
government administration buildings, military bases, and territory. In 2007, Dokka Umarov, the
fifth and final leader of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, declared the dissolution of the
republic, and the establishment of its replacement, the Islamic Caucasian Emirate 48. The
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