Investor Presentaiton
Hanbell: Growth catalysts in vacuum pump segment
Vacuum pump segment to become the company's growth engine
Our forecast for vacuum pumps in the PV industry: Our base case assumes the total market size of vacuum pumps used in
the PV industry will reach Rmb1,540m in 2025E, representing a 7.2% revenue CAGR over 2021-25E.
Base case
PV (GW)
YoY % (RHS)
New capacity (GW)
13.0% 30.8% 17.6% 12.5% 11.1%
25
2020 2021 2022
Global Installations Capacity: Solar
130 170 200
2023E 2024E 2025E
225 250
Bull case
270
Global Installations Capacity: Solar
PV (GW)
2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
130 170 225 270 300 330
8.0%
YoY % (RHS)
15
40
30
25
20
New capacity (GW)
144 163 213 250 281
48 54 71 83 94
104
63 94 101 108 119 124
12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
313
Inventory capacity (GW)
Inventory renewal
48
Equipment demand (GW)
63
13.0% 30.8% 32.4% 20.0% 11.1% 10.0%
15 40 55 45 30 30
144 163 213 281 338 375
54
71
94
113 125
94 126 139 143
155
Value per GW, RMB m
780 1,168 1,250 1,343 1,473 1,540 Total market size, RMB m
18.3% 49.7% 7.1% 7.4% 9.6% 4.6% YoY %
Inventory capacity (GW)
Inventory renewal
Equipment demand (GW)
Value per GW, RMB m
Total market size, RMB m
YoY %
12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
780 1,168 1,560 1,721 1,767 1,922
18.3% 49.7% 33.6% 10.3% 2.7% 8.8%
Our base case forecast for vacuum pumps in the semiconductor industry: We expect market size of semiconductor vacuum
pumps to reach Rmb31,953m in 2022E and Rmb38,965m in 2025E, representing a 6.8% revenue CAGR over 2022E-25E.
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
Incremental market
Wafer production capacity, thousand /month
610
YoY % (RHS)
Vacuum pump production capacity, thousand /month
571
840
37.7%
571
940
11.9%
950
1,000
1,000
1.1%
5.3%
0.0%
571
571
571
571
No. of vacuum pump
34,794
48,251
Price of vacuum pump, RMB
120,000
120,000
53,589
120,000
54,286
120,000
57,143
57,143
120,000
120,000
Market size, RMB m
4,175
5,790
6,431
6,514
6,857
6,857
Existing market
Wafer production capacity, thousand /month
YoY % (RHS)
9,930
10,780
Vacuum pump production capacity, thousand /month
571
8.6%
571
11,720
8.7%
571
12,670
8.1%
571
13,670
14,670
7.9%
571
7.3%
571
No. of vacuum pump renewal
113,523
123,175
133,893
144,800
156,229
167,657
Price of vacuum pump, RMB
120,000
120,000
120,000
120,000
120,000
120,000
Market size, RMB m
13,623
14,781
16,067
17,376
18,747
20,119
Total market size of vacuum pump, RMB m
17,798
20,571
22,498
23,890
25,605
26,976
Repair & Maintenance market size of vacuum pump, RMB bn
Total, RMB bn
N.A.
8,709
9,455
10,279
11,112
11,989
17,798
29,280
31,953
34,169
36,717
38,965
YoY %
42%
42%
43%
43%
44%
14
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, May 2023View entire presentation