Investor Presentaiton slide image

Investor Presentaiton

Default Rates Expected to Rise; High Yield Spreads Fluctuate Around Historical Average Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade Corporate Rated Issuance1 U.S. HY Bond Spreads² Moderately Pessimistic Severely Pessimistic -U.S. HY Bond Spreads - • Avg U.S. HY Bond Spread 1,000 •14.9% Baseline -Optimistic 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 4.1% global historical average1 6% 4% 2% 0% 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 800 9.9% 600 ~550 bps historical average² 4.4% 3.9% 400 2023F 200 4Q19 2Q20 4Q20 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22 >>> Global speculative-grade default rate expected to rise to 4.4% by year-end, slightly above long-term average but well below prior recessionary levels 1. 2. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2022. 2023 forecast ended December 31, 2023. Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: January 2023 Default Report, February 14, 2023 Reported data as of December 31, 2022. Bond spreads as of the last day of each month. Historical average is the daily bond spread average between December 31, 1996 - December 31, 2022. Source: St. Louis Fed Database. MOODY'S | DECODE RISK. UNLOCK OPPORTUNITY. 4Q and FY 2022 Investor Presentation 16
View entire presentation