FY22 Financial Overview slide image

FY22 Financial Overview

Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation The global economic outlook has deteriorated owing to the combined impacts of central bank efforts to tame inflation, the consequences of Russia's war on Ukraine, pandemic management in China and the impact of higher energy prices. Concerns about potential slowdown and high inflation have led to very volatile financial markets, which have clouded the outlook further. Inflation remains a problem almost everywhere in the world, but is expected to decline gradually over coming quarters as the impact of higher interest rates is felt through economies. The speed at which inflation will decline will be mitigated by the impact of rising wages and their impact on service sector prices in particular. In Canada, we anticipate inflation will average 6.9% this year, slowing to a still above target 3.9% in 2023, before normalizing to 1.7% in 2024. In the US, we anticipate inflation will average 8.2% this year, 5.0% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024. Similarly, continued price pressures support forecast of high and persistent inflation in Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru The Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve are nearing the end of their monetary policy tightening cycles. We assume that the Bank of Canada's policy rate peaks at 4.25% by the end of the year and that the Federal Reserve stops raising its target rate when it reaches 5% early next year. Central banks in the Pacific Alliance Countries have also been raising policy rates aggressively to counter inflationary pressures. This process is also nearing its end as the pace of economic expansion moderates. Canada: Bank of Canada Policy Rate vs Headline Inflation 25 Canada Unemployment Rate Latam Unemployment Rates %, SA 16 Latam PAC Inflation y/y % change Chile 14 987654 3 2 % 1 Headline inflation forecast 0 -1 Policy rate 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 14 % 12 10 10 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Ban Rep, DANE. 8 9 4 20 15 10 5 Colombia Mexico Peru 4 620 06 +20 12 10 8 -2 Chile 2 Mexico Colombia Peru -4 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics.
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