Emirates NBD Investor Presentation
Emirates NBD
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
Estimated GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2012 from an expected 4.6% in
2011 due to boost from higher oil production in 2011 (up 8.8% y/y) which is
unlikely to be repeated in 2012
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
UAE
3.3%
(1.6%)
1.4%
4.6%
2.5%
3.8%
■
Non-oil sector also likely to face headwinds from weaker global growth,
high uncertainty and risk aversion
UK
(1.1%)
(4.9%)
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
1.6%
Eurozone
0.4%
(4.2%)
1.9%
1.5%
(0.4%)
1.0%
PMI data shows non-oil private sector activity slowed in H2 2011, as
Eurozone crisis escalated and global growth slowed
Germany
1.1%
(5.1%)
3.7%
3.0%
0.5%
1.5%
US
(0.3%) (3.5%)
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
2.5%
Inflation in 2011 averaged 1%, almost unchanged from the 0.9% recorded in
2010; Inflation likely to remain modest in 2012
China
9.6%
9.2%
10.3%
9.0%
8.0%
8.4%
Japan
(1.1%)
(6.3%)
4.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.4%
Singapore
1.9%
(0.8%)
14.9%
5.0%
n/a
n/a
Hong Kong
2.3%
(2.6%)
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
4.4%
Oil production on an upward trend in 2011
2.7
140
60
2.6
120
2.5
100
55
2.4
80
2.3
60
USD per barrel
50
50
2.2
40
45
445
2.1
20
2.0
0
40
40
Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
UAE (lhs)
--- UAE Quota (lhs)
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Aug-09
Sep-09
Source: HSBC, Markit
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg
UAE PMI - private sector expansion slows in H2 2011
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
4
Nov-11
Dec-11View entire presentation