Investor Presentaiton
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
Strategy
Financial & Operating Performance
Appendix
Real GDP growth forecasts
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
2015 real GDP growth estimated at 4.0%. Oil production
rose 4.1% according to Bloomberg estimates, offsetting
slower growth in the non-oil sectors of the economy.
UAE's PMI averaged 56.0 in 2015, down from 58.1 in 2014,
signaling slower non-oil private sector growth. A strong USD,
low oil prices and greater uncertainty about geopolitics and
the economic outlook all contributed to weaker growth in the
UAE's non-oil, service oriented sectors.
Inflation averaged 4.0% in 2015, up from 2.3% in 2014. We
expect inflation to average 3.5% in 2016 as lower housing
costs are captured in the official data.
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Jordan
Lebanon
Tunisia
UAE oil production
3.0
2.9
mn bpd
2.8
€ 2.7
2.6
Emirates NBD
3
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
S. Arabia
UAE
2.7
3.5
3.4
1.9
2.6
4.3
4.6
4.0
3.0
3.4
4.6
4.0
3.8
4.1
5.2
0.6
0.1
0.5
2.0
2.8
4.6
2.5
3.4
2.9
3.0
Bahrain
5.3
4.5
3.1
2.8
3.9
GCC (average)
3.2
3.4
3.4
2.6
3.2
Egypt
7.4
2.2
4.2
3.9
5.0
2.8
3.1
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.9
2.7
0.6
2.5
3.0
Morocco
4.4
2.0
4.4
2.1
4.8
MENA (average)
5.7
2.2
3.7
3.2
4.5
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non oil private sector activity
62
60
58
56
54
52
2.5
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
50
Dec-12
May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15
Source: Markit / Emirates NBDView entire presentation