Financial and Mortgage Portfolio Overview
15
Export-driven GDP growth following robust growth in demand
Strong foundations facilitate a vigorous recovery as world-wide pandemic impact fades
Exports replace domestic demand as the key catalyst of healthy GDP growth...
Real GDP and main subitems, YoY change, %
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
-18
2010
Imports
2500
4.3 5.0
2000
27 2.6
1500
...as tourism sector recovery continues following receding pandemic impact
Number of foreign tourists per year, thousands
1000
500
0
2012
2014
Exports
2016
Priv.consumption
2018
Inventory chg.
GDP
2020
2022
2024
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Investment
Public consumption
A buoyant housing market has been one of the main drivers of inflation... ...which has prompted considerable monetary tightening by the central bank
Prices and turnover in the capital region residential housing market
Inflation and policy rate, %
30
1200
10
8
25
1000
6
20
800
4
15
600
2
0
10
400
-2
5
200
-4
0
0
-6
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
No. of contracts (r.axis)
YoY price change (l.axis)
2019
Effective CBI policy rate
2020
2021
2022
2023
Inflation.
2024
-Real policy rate
Shaded areas indicate ISB Research forecasts. Source: Statistics Iceland, the Central Bank of Iceland and ISB Research.
3
August-September 2022View entire presentation