Investor Presentaiton
Economic and interest rate outlook
5.0%
Bank of Ireland 2019 Results Announcement
Strong growth in Ireland
UK remains resilient
Lower for longer interest rates
1.50% 1
4.6%
4.6%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
1.00%
0.50%
BoE
5.8%
0.00%
4.8%
3.6%
-0.50% -
1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
-1.00%
2019e
2020f
2021f
2019
GDP1
Unemployment Rate
2020f
2021f
2019
ECB
2020f 2021f 2022f
2023f
GDP1
Unemployment Rate
-EUR2
GBP3
•
•
Irish economy continues to expand
Economic fundamentals in our home
market remain supportive although
Brexit related uncertainties persist
Labour market dynamics are strong
Moderate GDP growth forecast
Unemployment rate remains low
Competitive dynamics have intensified
in the mortgage market
•
Euro and sterling interest rates are
expected to remain at historically low
levels for a number of years
• Inflation remains low in the Euro area
(1.2%) and the UK (1.8%)
Negative rates increasingly becoming
a feature of Corporate and SME
deposit market
Sources: Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit; CSO; ONS; Bloomberg; Eurostat
1 Annual real growth
2 Market derived forecasts for the ECB deposit rate at end year
3 Market derived forecasts for the BoE Bank rate at end year
4 Euro area HICP and UK CPI, 2019 annual average rate
Bank of Ireland
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