FY 2022 Results
Macroeconomic variables
Q322
Q322 Upside 2
Q322 Upside 1
Q322 Baseline
Q322 Downside 1
Q322 Downside 2
2023
2024
2025
2023
2024 2025
2023
2024
2025
2023 2024 2025
2023
2024
2025
UK GDP1
4.0%
3.3%
2.8%
2.1%
2.5%
2.3%
0.3%
1.6%
1.8%
(2.3)% (0.4)%
2.9%
(5.0)%
(2.5)%
4.0%
UK unemployment²
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
4.4%
3.9%
3.8%
6.3%
6.5%
5.4%
8.1%
9.0%
7.0%
UK HP13
10.3%
5.7%
4.5%
5.4%
3.0%
3.3%
0.6%
0.4%
2.0%
(11.4)% (7.0)%
8.8%
(22.3)% (14.1)% 15.8%
UK Bank Rate
1.9%
1.4%
1.3%
2.6%
2.2%
1.8%
3.4%
2.8%
2.4%
3.9%
3.8%
2.7%
4.6%
4.6%
3.0%
US GDP1
3.7%
3.2%
2.8%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
1.5%
1.5%
(1.6)% (0.5)%
2.0% (4.2)% (2.5)%
2.6%
US unemployment4
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.7%
3.8%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.2%
6.0%
6.9%
6.3%
7.9%
9.5%
8.3%
US HP15
5.7%
4.8%
4.5%
4.5%
4.1%
3.9%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4% (2.0)%
1.5%
4.3%
(7.2)%
(0.3)%
5.3%
US Federal Funds Rate
2.5%
1.8%
1.3%
2.9%
2.3%
1.8%
3.4%
2.8%
2.3%
4.1%
3.8%
2.9%
4.6%
4.6%
3.4%
Scenario probability
weighting
13.2%
26.1%
39.8%
14.2%
6.7%
1 Average Real GDP seasonally adjusted change in year | 2 Average UK unemployment rate 16-year+ | 3 Change in year end UK HPI = Halifax All Houses, All Buyers index, relative to prior year end | 4 Average US civilian unemployment rate 16-year+ 15 Change in year end US HPI = FHFA
House Price Index, relative to prior year end |
28 | Barclays FY 2022 Results | 15 February 2023
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