January 20 Investor Presentation
IMO 2020: Changes in Bunker Specification and Its Effects
Beyond 2020
Current Outlook
HSFO replacement expectations
-0.6
-0.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
HSFO w/...
VLSFO
Current HSFO
HSFO Non...
MGO
6
5
43
2
1
0
1.3
-1.1
Long term outlook for marine fuels
Compliant HSFO Non-compliant HSFO ULSFO MGO LNG
Current compliant fuels
• Marine Gasoil (Diesel): Easiest solution as it is already
available
• Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO): Either through FCC
with sweet crudes or by blending
•
Scrubbers: As of 01/11/19, ~2.8K vessels are either
fitted or scheduled to be fitted and ~0.6K vessels are
on order book to be delivered with scrubbers
• LNG: requires significant investments at ports
Demand shift beyond 2020
•
MGO is expected to be the initial choice in 2020
.
•
VLSFO becomes more widespread through the years as
availability & compatibility issues get resolved
Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise.
from 2K after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans
on open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might
change)
January 20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Investor Presentation
Appendix
www.tupras.com.tr
Source: Market Reports
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