Investor Presentaiton
Housing, business lending and deposits outlook¹
BOQ GROUP
Housing outlook
› Unemployment low at c.3.5% in calendar
2023 and likely to stay low
› Consumer confidence has taken a hit from
the rise in the cost of living and higher
interest rates
› Consumers remain confident about the
labour market and are likely to benefit from
faster wage growth
› Consumers have accumulated significant
savings
> Rising interest rates and affordability
concerns will see a peak-to-trough decline in
house prices of around 16% in this cycle
> House prices forecast to drop by c.9% in
2023
> Housing credit is projected to grow by
around 3.5% this financial year²
Business lending outlook
› Business order books and capex intentions
are currently elevated
› Consumer spending is above pre-COVID
levels
> High input costs are an issue for many
firms
> Labour remain the biggest constraint
although supply-chain problems are slowly
being resolved
> Strong outlook for agri given high
commodity prices
› Business credit is expected to grow by
around 6.5% in the 2023 financial year
Deposits outlook
› System deposit growth was elevated over
COVID-19
> Deposit growth will likely slow reflecting
the end of government COVID income
support, negative real wages growth and
greater spending opportunities from the
re-opening of the economy
> An important offset may be that the
uncertain economic and financial market
environment as well as higher interest
rates will lead to a shift in the composition
of saving towards deposits
> Deposit growth is expected to grow by
around 5% in the 2023 financial year
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 2022 Full Year Results Presentation
(1) BOQ house view
(2)
BOQ financial year to August 2023
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