Q3 2020 Business Update amid Covid-19
•
Real GDP to decline 4% -9% in 2020 in Erste Group's core markets
•
Both exports and consumption will suffer in 2020
Macroeconomic update (2) -
2020 will see economic slump, partial rebound expected in 2021
CEE Recovery Index
(0 = point of lowest activity, based on weekly indicators)
1.2
•
Hardest hit industries expected to be tourism, services, transport, and
retail trade
1.0
•
Q2 expected to be hit hardest followed by Q3 & Q4 recovery
Economic activity expected to partially rebound in 2021
0.8
Recent government measures will mainly be concentrated on retail &
services
0.6
0.4
•
Production expected to be less impacted
In case of broad-based lockdown downward revisions very likely
0.2
•
CEE Recovery Index shows the performance of various indicators
compared to mid April
Input factors: electricity consumption, air
pollution, mobility in groceries, mobility in
retail & recreation, mobility in workplace,
capacity in automotive sector
0.0
•
Current decline reflects recent government measures as a response to
rising new Covid cases
1 March
1 May
1 July
1 Sept
Source. Erste Group Research
Evolution of real GDP forecasts
2020e
-4.2
-4.7-4.7 -4.7
-4.6
-4.5
-5.0
-5.8
-6.0-6.2 -6.7-7.0
-6.3
-7.5
-7.5
-7.9
-9.0-9.0
ERSTEŚ
Group
-1.0
-2.3 -2.3
2021e
1 Nov
7.1
5.8
6.0
5.4 5.2
4.2 4.3
3.1
4.5 4.0
4.5
4.6 4.7
4.1
4.7 4.7 5.0
3.9 3.9 3.9
3.0
as of 30 April
as of 31 July
as of 31 Oct
Page
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