Vanguard's Economic and Market Overview
Global equity and fixed income outlook
Falling equity valuations and rising interest rates have largely increased our 10-year annualized developed market return forecasts in the first five months of 2022 by about
1 percentage point for stocks and 1.5 percentage points for bonds. Forecasts are from the perspective of local investors in local currencies.
U.S. dollar
U.S. equities
2.0%
4.0%
3.4%
5.4%
Global equities
ex-U.S. (unhedged)
5.1%
7.1%
6.1%
8.1%
U.S. aggregate bonds
1.5%
2.5%
3.0%
4.0%
Global bonds
1.3%
2.3%
ex-U.S. (hedged)
2.9%
3.9%
Forecast
2021 year-end
2022 midyear
Canadian dollar
Canada equities
Global equities
ex-Canada
(unhedged)
2.9%
4.9%
3.5%
5.5%
3.0%
5.0%
4.4%
6.4%
Canada
1.4%
aggregate bonds
2.4%
3.0%
4.0%
Global bonds
ex-Canada
(hedged)
1.1%
2.1%
2.7%
3.7%
IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results,
and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of December 31, 2021, and May 31, 2022. Results
from the model may vary with each use and over time. For more information, please see the important information slide.
Note: Figures are based on a 1-point range around the 50th percentile of the distribution of return outcomes for equities and a 0.5-point range around the 50th percentile for fixed income.
Source: Vanguard.
For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
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