2021 Investor Day Presentation
Annual system costs by 2030
Over the decade, the challenge of meeting the generation
needs of a power system moving towards 99%-100% RE are
significant, regardless of the dry-year solution pursued:
13-15TWh of new generation, including roof-top PV
New capital requirements are broadly in line with energy
needs - similar between scenarios
$9.5-10B (including $1.9B of roof-top PV)
Additional costs are likely for new flexibility:
For example: H₂ = $2.5B; Onslow = $4B; gas flexibility =
$0.5B; Pukaki high dam = $2.5B (all estimates)
Depending on how costs are socialised, dry-year load
response, reserve coal, or gas turbines could all look
significantly cheaper
System cost is not the only metric for the Government (or
regulators) to consider: carbon, security, volatility, and
investment/market stability are all important
system costs per year [$M]
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
S-
Annual NZ System Costs
Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies
Shortage
Emergency
Dem Res
Capital Annuity
Direct Tx
Carbon
Thermal Fuel
IOM
TOTAL (mean)
.......+flex capital
Source: Meridian
A tight range of system costs is seen between quite
different solutions to dry-year flexibility
until the unknown costs of flexibility are considered
Meridian.
11 MAY 2021
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2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
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