Investor Day 2021 - Maybank Group's Five-Year Strategy: M25
Our Operating Context (1/2)
We have seen
heightened uncertainty
in the global economy in
the past five years,
impacting the banking
sector ROES.
Exacerbating this
environment is the
recent pandemic-
induced uncertainties.
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index1
440
Pandemicrisis
-US-
China
Trade
Brexit
War...
Referendum;
Global
Financial
Crisis &
Eurozone
Sovereign
US Presidential
Election
Debt
Crisis
Global
Recession
Growth
Slowdown
SARS
400
360
320
280
240
200
Asian
Post-DotCom
Bubble
Financial Recession
160
Crisis
120
80
40
السلسلة
Dec-09-
Nov-10-
Oct-11
Sep-12
Aug-13
Jul-14
Jun-15
May-16-
Apr-17-
Mar-18
Feb-19-
Jan-20
Jan-09
Jan-98
Dec-98
Nov-99
Oct-00-
Sep-01
Aug-02-
Jul-03-
Jun-04-
May-05-
Apr-06
Mar-07
Feb-97
Global Average Interest Rates (% p.a.)³
5.00
Given the volatility
globally and slowing
economic growth, we
have been experiencing
a prolonged low interest
rate environment since
the Global Financial
Crisis, with new interest
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
DotCom
Bubble
2.00
Burst
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
rate lows seen in 2020.
Eurozone
Sovereign
Debt Crisis
Global
Finantel
Crists &
Recession
Global Weighted Average Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a.)
-Global Aggregate 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yield (% p.a.)
China-led
Global Slowdown-
US-China
Trade
Decreasing industry ROE trajectory²
30.00
25.00
*
*
20.00
*
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2005
2007
2006
2008 2009 2010
2012
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
MY Banks
SG Banks
2018
2017
ID Banks
2019
YTD
bps
ASEAN Central Banks Have Slashed Policy Rates Amid the Pandemic Crisis4
Change in Policy Rate
0
-100
-75
-125
-125
-200
-150
-200
-200 -200
-300
-250
-300
-400
-500
COVID
-19
-600
2020
Global Financial Crisis
Sep-00
May-01-
Jan-02-
Sep-02-
May-03-
Jan-041
Sep-04-
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06-
May-07-
Jan-08-
Sep-08-
May-09
Jan-10-
Sep-10
May-11-
Jan-12-
Sep-12-
May-13-
Jan-14-
Sep-14-
May-15-
Jan-16
Sep-16-
May-17-
Jan-18-
Sep-18-
May-19-
Jan-20-
Sep-201
-700
-700
-800
Vietnam
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Source: 1) "ASEANX Macro Global Economy Update: The Good, The Bad, The Uncertain" by MKE Research @ 7 Aug 2020 2) S&P Global Market Intelligence 3) "ASEAN Macro Year Ahead:
2021 Recovery & Reopening" by MKE Research @ 7 Dec 2020 4) “Year Ahead 2021: ASEAN - Herd Immunity & Escape Velocity" by MKE Research @ 7 Dec 2020
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