Investor Presentaiton
AURIZON.
2021 INVESTOR DAY
Coal demand scenarios
Aurizon uses six scenarios to test fleet capacity, capital investments and haulage opportunities
OUR PROCESS
>
We form a view on the future of coal
through our internal Strategy in
Uncertainty framework
Scenarios are built on fundamental
drivers of economic growth, global
power generation mix, steel
production and investment in new
supply
Scenarios are reviewed regularly and
produce a range of outcomes over
OUR SIX SCENARIOS
Commodity Strong
· Current Economics
Port Constrained Australia
Mine/Regulatory Constrained Australia
· Carbon Constrained Asia
600mt
>
20 years. However, modelling
500mt
indicates positive annual growth rates
for five of six scenarios in the first
400mt
decade
300mt
200mt
Rapid Decarbonisation
Australia: Coal Export Volume (million tonnes)
100mt
2010
2015
2020 2025f 2030f
2035f 2040f
SCENARIO INFORMATION
> Scenarios and associated free cash flow
modelling used in this presentation (and
transcript) are based on current information
detailed on slides 22-33 and the appendix
> There are inherent limitations with scenario
analysis and it is difficult to predict which, if
any, of the scenarios might eventuate
> The scenarios are not predictions or forecasts
and do not constitute definitive outcomes for
Aurizon
> We do not assign probabilities and future
performance may be outside of the range of
the scenarios and associated free cash flow
modelling presented
> We have relied on assumptions that may not
prove to be correct and they may not
eventuate. The scenarios and associated free
cash flow modelling may be impacted by
additional factors to those assumed by us
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