Investor Presentaiton
October 12, 2021
GBM
VITROMEX: STRATEGY
According to our discussion with Vitromex's management, their strategy remains focused on three clear objectives-we added a fourth one, although it is not currently on Vitromex's radar.
Consolidate a profitability plan to achieve high double-digit margins. With the turnover plan that we discussed on the previous slide, Vitromex seeks to reach stable EBITDA margins ranging between 14 and
18%-similar to the industry average. Since this is something that we have not seen before, in our valuation of GISSA we are leaving it as an upside risk, with our estimate of perpetuity EBITDA margin close to
9%, which is still above what we have witnessed over the past decade.
⚫ Focus on cost reduction, quality service levels, and best value products to preserve the market share in Mexico.
•
Constant pursuit of organic growth opportunities on two clear fronts:
•
1. Mexico. Expand its capacity in the central part of the country by setting up a new 8-12 million square feet production plant (15 to 25% capacity increase). The US$50-70 million investment required could be
easily covered with GISSA's strong FCF generation and healthy balance sheet.
2. United States. Continue to diversify its business through targeted segments and increase its participation in glazed porcelain products. In conclusion, small but clear steps.
M&A. In our view, this would apply both ways: either GISSA sells Vitromex to focus 100% on its Auto Parts division (Draxton) and unlocks value by disintegrating its conglomerate structure-becoming a pure auto
parts player-or GISSA buys another ceramic tile company looking to expand its scale in the Americas or perhaps Europe-in both cases aiming to enhance its export position of high premium brands across
Mexico and the US. Of course, we see this as a possibility only after consolidating its profitability strategy and seizing growth opportunities in Mexico, which might take at least two years.
EBITDA incl. IFRS 16 and EBITDA Mg.
-Figures in MXN Billion
1.00
9.6%
0.80
8.2%
5.5%
0.60
Vitromex management believes the new structure of the company should show
EBITDA margins between 14 and 18%, which are significantly above our expectation
of ~9.5%. This demonstrate the vast upside risk in our current valuation of GISSA.
17%
14%
12%
4.2%
9.8%
9.5%
9.5%
0.39
0.39
0.38
0.37
0.40
0.28
-3.6%
0.21
-4.7%
0.20
0.15
(0.12)
(0.20)
2015
2016
2017
(0.16)
2018
2019
2020
2021e
EBITDA
EBITDA Mg.
-0- EBITDA Mg. (GISSA's Targets)
Source: Company data
2022e
2023e
LAMOSA/CERAMIC: THE ROAD TO GROWTH IS PAVED WITH TILES. | 56View entire presentation