H1 2023 EBITDA Overview and Oyu Tolgoi Outlook
Price support for our commodities compared to H2
Aluminium1 (-24% YoY)
4,000
Copper² (-10% YoY)
900
500
TiO2 (chloride slag) (+12% YoY)
1,100
3,500
750
450
1,000
3,000
600
400
900
2,500
450
350
2,000
300
300
800
1,500
150
250
700
1,000
0
200
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
Jan-20
LME Aluminium ($/t)
----HY Average
MWP (RHS)
Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Price (c/lb)
Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23
----HY Average
Global aluminium demand has been resilient in H1,
YTD +2% YoY, with growth in automotive and solar
markets offsetting weaker demand from the
construction sector
Aluminium production has been stable, as smelting
capacity has remained offline in Europe and idle
capacity in China has only restarted gradually,
resulting in 1% YTD global growth
Global reported inventories are flat YTD and reported
stocks in China have remained low. China imported
0.4Mt of primary aluminium in Jan-May 2023, averting
a decline in inventories to unsustainably low levels
•
Price rebound from H2 2022, although still lower than
last year as global macro uncertainty dampens
sentiment
China demand growth positive despite downturn in
construction, driven by electric vehicles and
renewable sectors. Demand in US and EU was
resilient in Q1 but has softened thereafter
Mine supply disruptions in Q1 limited material
availability; Chile's production YTD remains weak,
partially offset by higher production from Peru
Inventories have fallen sharply after China's seasonal
build-up in Q1 (down 50% YoY in June)
CP Slag ($/t) ----HY average
TiO2 feedstock prices relatively stable through H1
despite deteriorating market conditions further
downstream
Demand for TiO2 products has continued to be
impacted by weakening macro environment over the
first half with construction indicators down across
major TiO2 consuming regions
Sales volume declines for pigment producers and
paint manufacturers in North America and Europe
reported in Q1
Rio Tinto
©2023, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved
1Average LME price. MWP = US Midwest premium | 2Average LME price | YoY = change in average price during first half compared to previous year
Sources: Rio Tinto Market Analysis, CME, LME, Mysteel, S&P Global, TZMI
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