New Mexico Economic Development and Revenue Strategy

Risks Related to the Reliance on the Oil and Gas Sector . Multiple sources currently estimate that peak production of oil and natural gas will occur by or before the mid-2030s. Projections used by the State for revenue forecasting, from analytical firms that include Moody's Analytics, Rystad Energy, and IHS Markit, estimate that the final turning point for oil production could occur as soon as 2028 and shortly thereafter for natural gas. Similarly, entities like the International Energy Agency predict peak demand will occur by the mid-2030s, and a survey of institutional investors in the oil and gas industry found that two-thirds of investors believed that demand would peak by 2030. © PFM 12

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