Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Thailand Economic Figures
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Currency and Interest Rate Outlook (As of March 2023)
USD/THB: End Period
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Interest Rate Trend
143
Bt
37
32.68
32.91
35.97 35.84
32.66
32.55
33.41
34.61
5.00
33.50-34.00
29.95
2.25
2.00
Fed Funds rate
1.50
1.50
1.50
33 30.60
29.98
BOT's 1-Day Repurchase rate
1.50
1.25
0-0.25
0-0.25 0.25-0.50 0.50-0.75 1.25-1:50 2.25-2.50 1.50-1.75 0-0.29-50 0-0.290.50
4.25-4.50
4.75-5.00
2.00
1.25
0.00
29
Dec-13 Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F
4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 4Q23F
USD/THB
■ Baht fluctuated around Bt33.00-35.00 per USD
amid global financial market turmoil
■ As Fed moves closer to its terminal rates with
banking sector risks, the USD seems to lose its
gauge
■ At 2023 year-end, Baht would reach Bt33.50-34.00
per USD, as Thai economy continues to improve,
due to tourism recovery amid China early
reopening and a surplus expectations on Thai
current account surplus
■ However, risks of global financial markets after
the collapse of SVB, geopolitical tensions
especially nuclear treat, and global recession are
main risks to weaken Baht and Asian currencies
Note: F is estimated by KBank Capital Markets Research (as of March 29, 2023)
■ Fed raised rates by 25bps to 4.75-5% in March 2023
The Fed will need to weigh the impact of the
collapse regional lenders in deciding how much to
raise interest rates going forward
■ We expect Fed's interest rate at the end of 2023 to
be around 4.75-5.00%
■ BOT is expected to continue with its gradual hiking
path, amid decreasing inflation
BOT's interest rate is expected to be 2.00% at the
end of 2023
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
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