Turning the Corner: A New Compact between Nigeria's People and State
DESPITE THE ADJUSTMENT COSTS OF THE REFORMS, OUTPUT
GROWTH THROUGH Q3 2023 HAS BEEN RESILIENT
Non-oil GDP growth has been consistently positive, while the oil
sector has been constantly a drag on growth
Percentage points
7
6
Sectoral Contribution to GDP
GDP growth could be 0.7 percentage points in 2023 higher if
budgeted oil production targets had been achieved
GDP Growth: actual vs counterfactual
Percent
5
4.6
5
4
3.6
3.6
3.4
3
2.4
3.1
2.6
2.4
3
2
1
0
fi
2
4
3.6
3.6
3.3
-1
1
-2
-3
0
Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
2021
Oil
Non-oil
Net indirect taxes on products Real GDP growth
GDP
2022
Counterfactual
NIGERIA
THE WORLD BANK
IBRD ⚫IDA | WORLD BANK GROUP
Source: NBS and World Bank
2.9
3.6
2023f
Source: NBS and World Bank. Note: The counterfactual is
estimated as the GDP growth had oil production reached its
budgeted target
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