Canadian Banking and Residential Mortgages Overview
Economic Outlook in Core Markets
Real GDP Growth Forecast (2022-23)
Real GDP (Annual % Change)
Forecast 1, 2
Country
2010-19
Average
2020 2021E
2022
2023
Q1F Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
Year
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F
Q4F Year
Canada
2.3
(5.2)
4.6
2.0
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.7
4.6
3.5
2.8
2.3
3.3
U.S.
2.3
(3.4)
5.6
4.0
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.9
4.1
3.5
3.1
2.6
3.3
Mexico
2.7
(8.2)
5.0
2.1
106
1.6
1.6
1
2.3
1.9
1.5
10
1.6
1.7
21
2.1
1.7
Chile
3.3
(5.8)
12.0
8.8
6.7
0.1
(0.7)
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.2
1.0
2.0
Peru
4.5
(11.0)
13.3
2.7
2.5
2.1
3.3
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.8
Colombia
3.7
(7.0)
10.2
5.1
7.8
2.9
2.0
4.5
3.4
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
PAC Average³
3.6
(8.0)
10.1
4.7
4.7
12
15
1.7
1.7
3.1
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.6
Source: Scotiabank Economics.
1 Forecasts for Canada and U.S. as of the January 19, 2022 Scotiabank Economics Global Forecast Tables.
2 Forecasts for PAC countries as of the February 18, 2022 Scotiabank Economics Latam Weekly.
3 Simple average.
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