1Q20 Results Discussion
Private early
stage portfolio
Renewable energy business overview
Investment rationale
Growing electricity market as supply lags behind the increasing demand, creating opportunities.
■ Underutilized energy resources - availability of economically feasible hydro and wind projects.
■ Cheap to develop - up to US$1.5m for 1MW hydro and up to US$1.4m for wind development on
average with 1.5x higher capacity factors compared to Europe over the last decade.
Value creation potential
"
о
Opportunity to establish a renewable energy platform with up to 440 MW operating capacity over
the medium-term, targeting to capture approximately one third of deregulated electricity market.
Energy consumption is expected to grow at least by CAGR 5% over the next 10-15 years on the
back of following key drivers:
Tourism and GDP growth with pronounced growth in electricity-heavy sectors.
о Increasing penetration of domestic appliances, with accelerating imports of electricity-intensive
conventional domestic devices.
о
Increasing number of installed residential and industrial air conditioning systems on the back
of decreasing unit prices, expected to result in at least 5x growth in penetration level over the
next decade.
Stable dividend provider capacity in the medium term.
Actual and forecasted consumption
Energy consumption has grown at 5.3% CAGR in last 10 years and is expected to further
grow at least by CAGR 5% over the next 15 years
Electricity supply and consumption, 2019
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
1,500
Deficit (4 months)
1,000
500
Deficit (6 months)
0
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Source: ESCO
Hydros&Wind
TPPS
Imports
Consumption
Electricity deficit
during July-April
■ 22% of total
consumption
produced by gas-
fired TPPS, 13% -
imported
Low base and high CDD¹ point towards 5x increase in AC penetration by 2030
Air conditioners are the most electricity-intensive conventional domestic devices and increasing
penetration of ACs quickly eats away the surplus electricity on the market in the summer months
GWh
23,000
18,000
13,000
Consumption CAGR
2009-2019: 5.3%
Consumption CAGR
2019-2030: 5%
8,000
3,000
2009
2011
2013
2015
Forecasted generation Hydros & Wind
Actual generation Hydros & Wind
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
Forecasted consumption
Actual consumption
2029
Growth of internal consumption: 7.7% in 2017, 6.1% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019
Anticipated deficit of at least 6.4 TWh by 2030
1,457
299
418
107
223
362
6.4 TWh
88%
47%
36%
33%
31%
10%
Cyprus
Croatia
Bulgaria
AC penetration (2018)
Italy
Spain
Georgia
Mean CDD
Source: World Bank's World Development indicators; Geostat, Galt&Taggart, Eurostat
(1) cooling degree day
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