Sustainably Growing Shareholder Value
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 14 - Growth potential across net-zero pathways
1. Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
and Data, average of IPCC scenarios that are net zero by 2050; hydrogen as
secondary energy plus additional 10EJ H2 feedstock (Hydrogen Council); CCS
is average of energy that is combined with CCS reported in IPCC scenarios
that are net zero by 2050. For biofuels, the IPCC data mentioned as liquid
biomass use as secondary energy was analyzed. As IPCC only provides oil and
gas primary energy, an analysis on the ratio of feedstock versus fuel was used
to estimate the size of the global chemicals market, separate from an oil-fuels
market and a natural gas-fuels market. Volumes associated with oil and
natural gas that have CCS are part of both the oil and gas value chain, as well
as the CCS value chain.
2. Potential market size figures: ExxonMobil analysis of Integrated Assessment
Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 1.5 scenario explorer and data on Lower 2°C
scenarios for CO2, wind, solar, H2, nuclear, biofuels, and fuels. Volumes and
prices in 2050 in the Lower 2°C scenarios were used, where available, to
calculate an estimate of the market revenue. For CCS, estimate assumes
capture from fossil sources only (~80%). For H2, the highest and lowest
outliers for market revenue in the Lower 2°C scenarios were excluded. For
Chemicals, ExxonMobil analysis of current market data from Statista 2020
Report on Chemical Industry Worldwide, and the IEA Sustainable
Development Scenario data for petrochemical feedstock growth to 2050.
Slide 15 - Growing value in a net-zero future
1. Modeling assumptions include: (1) current prices for Brent and Henry Hub
decline to conform with IEA NZE published prices by 2025 and the price path.
is linear between IEA NZE published prices by decade thereafter, (2) chemicals
margins decline over time partially offset by inflation, (3) refining margins
decline consistent with the change in oil demand under IEA NZE, (4) Low
Carbon Solutions investments attract reasonable returns based on historical
Company averages for similar business lines and products, (5) market position
as a percentage of demand under IEA NZE for current business (Upstream,
F&L, Chemicals) and new products (biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture.
and storage) is in line with the Company's current market positions in existing
businesses, (6) investment to abate estimated GHG emissions from remaining
Upstream, F&L, and Chemicals businesses by 2050, (7) annual inflation of
2.5%, (8) total capital expenditures held approximately constant near 2020
trailing 5-year average through 2050. The statements and figures contained
in this section are hypothetical in nature, and do not constitute a forecast of
future Company performance.
Price and margin assumptions used in IEA NZE Modeling
Brent Price
2021$/bbl
Refining Margins
2021$/bbl
2010
2020 2030 2040 2050 2010
Gas Price
2021$/mmbtu
2020 2030 2040 2050
Chemicals PE Margins
2021$/ton
2010
2020 2030 2040 2050 2010
2020 2030 2040 2050
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