Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Distributable Cash Flow Accretion / (Dilution)
Pre Unitholder Tax(1,2) | AM & AMGP | AR Base Case
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.797x Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AM:
PF AMGP at 1.679x:
PF AMGP at 1.797x:
Exchange Ratio
$ Acc / (Dil):
$ Acc / (Dil):
1.797x
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
(0.6%)
1.884x
(7.2%)
2H 2018E
$1.08
$1.00
$1.07
($0.08)
($0.01)
2H 2018E
(0.6%)
(0.2%)
0.2%
0.7%
5.4%
0.5%
(1.6%)
2019E
$2.74
$2.70
$2.89
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
2020E
($0.04)
$0.15
2019E
5.8%
6.3%
6.6%
-1.797 XR
2020E
$3.24
$3.31
$3.54
$0.07
$0.30
9.9%
10.4%
(1)
10.9%
10.7%
1.67% XR
12.6%
5.2%
2021E
$3.75
$3.94
$4.22
$0.20
$0.47
2021E
12.6%
13.1%
13.6%
(2)
14.1%
14.0%
13.7%
2022E
$4.29
$4.56
$4.88
$0.27
$0.59
2022E
13.7%
14.3%
14.8%
15.3%
15.1%
AM Proposal
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.0x AM Coverage
40.0%
Status Quo AMGP:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
Exchange Ratio
1.797x
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
2H 2018E
1.884x
$0.42
$0.60
$0.17
38.8%
37.6%
36.4%
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
2H 2018E
35.2%
27.5%
Source: Management projections and FacBet as of 8/30/2018.
(1) Pre Unitholder Tax 1.797x represents implied XR at 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
Post - Unitholder Tax 1.679x represents implied XR at 1.61-equity XR; cash used to pay taxes, with any excesscash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
2019E
$1.26
$1.61
$0.35
2019E
27.5%
26.4%
25.2%
24.2%
All-In XR
Gross Cash Consideration
Taxes Payable
1.614x
Net Cash Consideration
XR Equity Component
Secondary Shares Purchased 0.065
Net After-Tax XR
1.679x
23.1%
23.0%
2020E
$1.60
$1.97
$0.37
2020E
23.0%
21.9%
20.9%
19.8%
20.0%
18.8%
2021E
$1.96
$2.35
$0.39
2021E
20.0%
18.9%
17.9%
16.8%
15.8%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
EVERT INVESTMENT &
MERCHANT BANKING
16.2%
2022E
$2.34
$2.71
$0.38
2022E
16.2%
1.797x
$3.415
(52.29)
$1.13
15.2%
14.2%
13.2%
12.2%
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