Serbia Economic and FDI Outlook
Fiscal Developments in 2023 were Better Than Expected
National Bank of Serbia
In 2023, the consolidated deficit was RSD
181.1 bn (-2,2% of GDP)
Chart 21 General government revenues, expenditures and
outcome (% share in GDP)
Public debt remains on a downward trajectory
and within the Maastricht criteria
Chart 22 Public debt (central government)
(% share in GDP)
50.0
6.0
80.0
70.0
67.8
4.0
70.0
45.0
57.9
57.0 56.5
1.1
0.6
2.0
60.0
53.7
55.1
51.9
52.0
47.8
40.0
.0
50.0
-0.2
40.0
35.0
-1.2
-2.0
-2.2
30.0
-3.2
-4.0
30.0
-3.5
-4.1
Примарни резултат, д.с.
20.0
-5.1
25.0
-6.4
-6.2
укупни биланс:
20.0
-6.0
Фискални резултат, д.с.
10.0
Приходи, л.с.
-8.0
Расходи, л.с.
-8.0
.0
-10.0
2015 2016
2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023.
Other
SDR
CHF
EUR
USD
RSD
2022 2023 February
2024
Public debt
•
.
• Although Serbia eliminated fiscal deficit in the years before
pandemic, higher deficit in 2020-2022. arose as a result of
higher expenditures due to the pandemic and a package of
measures to support the economy and the population, and
in 2022, support to companies from the energy sector.
In 2023, the general government budget deficit amounted to
RSD 181.1 bn (-2.2% of GDP) and was thus lower
compared to the plan from the revised Fiscal Strategy (-
2.8% of GDP) as a result of lower current expenses. Share
of capital expenditures was kept at around 7% of GDP.
• In the period January-February 2024, a consolidated
surplus of 10.5 billion dinars was achieved.
In medium term, we expect its return to the level of around
1.5% of GDP.
As of 2021, the share of public debt in GDP is on a
downward trajectory, despite the impact of the
international energy crisis on the growth of budget
expenditures and energy procurement. At the end of 2023,
the share of central government public debt in GDP
amounted to 52.0% (general government public debt
52.3%) and decreased by 3.1 pp relative to 2022.
At the end of February 2024, the share of the public debt
of the central government amounted to 47.8% (general
government public debt 48.2%) and thus further decreased
compared to the end of 2023, mostly due to the higher
projected nominal GDP for 2024.
• We expect that as a result of the lower deficit, the public
debt will continue its downward trajectory in the coming,
years.
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