Investor Presentaiton
Thermal coal prices (US$/t)¹
Stock building and a mild Northern Hemisphere winter has resulted in lower spot demand and
price moderation ahead of expected upward price pressure for gC NEWC
$500
$400
Indonesian export
ban
$300
China officially
bans Australian
$200
$100
coal imports
Russia invades
Ukraine
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Stock building, Russian
sanctions, restructuring
of trade flows
China reverses ban
on Australian coal
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
•
•
Prices have retreated from record
high levels in mid-2022
Resilience of gC NEWC in seasonal
lower demand period is positive
Previous correlation of gC NEWC
and API5 less relevant as API5 tied
more to China
A focus on energy security and
changes in procurement are
resulting in a greater proportion of
HCV coal being contracted under
term contracts
47
gC NEWC (US$/t)
gC NEWC (Forecast) (US$/t)
API-5 (US$/t)
API-5 (Forecast) (US$/t)
1. Average monthly gC NEWC index. Forecast prices based on global COAL forward curve 18 August and weekly Argus/McCloskey Coal Price Index Report 18 August.View entire presentation