Financial Performance and Remediation Update
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK AFTER CURRENT LOCKDOWNS
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•
•
Economic activity and hours worked are expected to have fallen
relatively sharply in the September quarter with widespread
lockdowns in NSW, VIC and the ACT as well as state border
closures. Employment and labour participation also declined in the
quarter and the unemployment rate is expected to see a small
increase in the near term.
However, the relatively healthy pre-COVID starting point as well as
ongoing policy support should support a rapid rebound in both
activity and the labour market over coming quarters.
The recovery continues to be uneven with some sectors still held
back by state and international border closures, while others have
seen a boost as a result of policy stimulus. The normalisation of
consumer spending patterns will also likely take some time.
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED²
(Index)
110
GDP IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK¹
(Index)
105
100
95
90
Forecasts
90
Dec 19
Sep 20
Jun 21
Mar 22
Dec 22
Sep 23
INCREASED SAVINGS HAVE BUILT A BUFFER³
(%)
25
100
20
90
15
80
10
70
Cafes & takeaway
Other retail sales
5
60
0
50
40
-5
Jan 20
Apr 20
Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21
Apr 21
Jul 21
Oct 21
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
(2)
ཀྱིསི
Source: ABS, NAB. Data are indexed to December quarter 2019. NAB Economics Forecasts from September quarter 2021
Source: ABS, NAB. Data are ABS retail sales indexed to January 2020, data to September 2021
(3) Source: ABS, NAB. Household savings rate (ABS national accounts), data to June quarter 2021
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Australia
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