Russian Financial Sector Update
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (1)
Baseline scenario*: medium-term outlook for the Russian economy
19
2018
2019
2020
as % of previous year (unless indicated otherwise)
Urals price (annual average), US dollars per barrel
Inflation, % in December year-on-year
Inflation, yearly average
Gross domestic product
Final Consumption Expenditure
- households
Gross formation
-gross fixed capital formation
Exports
2017 (actual)
Baseline*
53
67
55
50
2.5
3.5-4.0
4.0-4.5
4.0
3.5
2.5-3.5
4.0-4.5
4.0
1.5
1.5-2.0
1.5-2.0
1.5-2.0
2.6
2.5-3.0
2.3-2.8
2.0-2.5
3.4
3.3-3.8
2.8-3.3
2.5-3.0
7.4
0.5-1.5
2.2-3.2
1.7-2.7
4.3
2.7-3.2
2.2-2.7
2.2-2.7
5.1
3.3-3.7
1.7-2.2
1.7-2.2
Imports
17.4
7.4-7.9
4.7-5.2
5.3-5.8
Money supply in national definition
10.5
10-13
8-11
8-11
Lending to non-financial organisations and households in rubles and foreign currency
8.2
10-13
7-11
7-12
- lending to non-financial and financial organisations in rubles and foreign currency
- lending to households in rubles and foreign currency
7.1
9-11
6-9
6-10
12
13-18
10-13
10-13
*As presented in Monetary Policy Report No. 6 (June 2018)
Source: Bank of RussiaView entire presentation