Investor Presentaiton
Canada: Housing Finances
MORE THAN HALF OF CANADIAN HOUSEHOLDS
DON'T HAVE A MORTGAGE OR HELOC 1
5 YEAR MORTGAGE RATES RESETTING HIGHER
50
% of households (2020 est.)
250
5-year difference, basis points
forecast*
200
30
40
with HELOC
40
150
11.5
100
30
50
1.9
0
20
20
-50
32.8
29.1
-100
10
10
24.3
-150
-200
0
15
16
17
18
Owned dwelling w/
mortgage
Owned dwelling w/o
mortgage
Rented
19
20
21
22
23 24
*Based on Scotiabank Economics forecast of 5-year government of Canada bond yields and
historical spreads between the conventional 5-year mortgage rate and the GoC 5-year bond yield.
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
HIGHER HOME EQUITY IN CANADA 2
80
81
equity as % of real estate assets
CANADIAN MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
DECLINING 3
10
Official (excl. HELOCs)
% of total loans past due three or
more months
8
75
70
Cda estimate incl. HELOCs
65
U.S. estimate with NFPS
excl. HELOCS
6
60
55
50
8554
45
4
Official FRB with NFPs
(incl. HELOCs)
2
40
40
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
10
12 14 16 18 20 22
U.S. + foreclosures
U.S
Canada
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22
1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Mortgage Professionals Canada; 2 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, OSFI, FCAC, Statistics Canada, Federal Reserve Board; 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, MBA, CBA.
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