Serbia Economic and FDI Outlook
Relative Stability of Exchange Rate and Credit Rating
are Preserved Even in the Period of Crises
National Bank of Serbia
Downword trend of the risk premium of Serbia
Chart 29 Risk premium indicator for euro-denominated debt - EURO EMBIG
(basis points, daily values)
EURO EMBIG Comp.
800
Hungary
Romania
700
North Macedonia
Turkey
Montenegro
Croatia
Serbia
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
The stability of the exchange rate is maintained,
while FX reserves are at record level
Chart 30 Exchange rate developments and NBS transactions in the FX market
(EUR/RSD)**
NBS transactions in the FX market, monthly
(RHS)*
EUR/RSD, monthly average (LHS)**
(in EUR mn)
140
1.000
135
800
130
125
600
120
400
115
200
110
105
0
100
-200
95
-400
90
85
-600
80
-800
75
-1.000
70
65
-1.200
2009 2011 2013
*net purchase; - net sale.
** EUR 1 in RSD.
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
8 10 13 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3
2019 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Due to the reduction in global uncertainty and favorable
domestic macroeconomic prospects, Serbia's risk premium
decreased in 2023, and its decline continued in 2024 - for debt
in euro decreased by 23 bp in the first three months of 2024,
while for debt in dollars it decrased by 20 bp.
Fitch (in February 2024) confirmed Serbia credit rating at BB+,
with a stable outlook. Moody's has affirmed Serbia's Ba2
ratings with stable outlook (September 2023). S&P rating
agency (in April 2024) confirmed Serbia's credit rating at BB+
level but increased the outlook from stable to positive.
• As factors that determine the positive outlook, the agencies
point out: sound medium-term growth prospects, FDI inflow,
credible monetary policy, economic resilience to a challenging
external environment, stable public finance, and structural
reform progress.
•The dinar gained 0.1% against the euro in 2023, while in
2024 dinar remained unchanged against the euro.
Appreciation pressures reflect favourable BoP developments,
high purchases of foreign cash and inflows from payment
card operations.
•
•
The net FX purchases in the IFEM amounted to EUR 3.94 bn
in 2023, while in three months of 2024 the NBS net bought
EUR 320 mn.
FX reserves amounted to EUR 24.9 bn in end-March, which
is close to their record high, and are well above the standards
for determining their adequacy.
17View entire presentation